A friend of mine noted that the numbers do not indicate that President
Obama won by a large margin. I looked into this and found that this was true.
Here are the numbers from all seven elections since 1988. All the data is
from uselectionatlas.org. Some sites have slightly different numbers on 2012 election.
1988-George H.W.
Bush wins with +315 electoral votes and +7,077,121 popular votes.
1992-Bill Clinton
wins with +202 electoral votes and +5,805,256 popular votes. Ross Perot took
18.9% of the popular vote that year.
1996-Bill Clinton
wins again with +220 electoral votes and +8,201,370 popular votes.
2000-George W. Bush wins with +5 electoral votes and -543,816
popular votes.
2004-George W. Bush wins with +35 electoral votes and +3,012,171
popular votes.
2008-Barack Obama wins with +192 electoral votes and +9,549,105
popular votes.
2012-Barack Obama wins with +126 electoral votes and +2,947,720
popular votes.
Several things
stick out as one looks at this election versus the other post Ronald Reagan
elections. President Obama got the least electoral votes of any Democrat since
Reagan and he also won by the smallest margin of popular votes. Both
Bill Clinton and George W. Bush improved their numbers when they were
reelected. President Obama did not. President Obama received over 9 million
less votes than he received in 2008. All the numbers indicate that President Obama lost ground over the
last four years and this win was not numerically impressive. So why does it feel so impressive? What happened on
Tuesday that caused most political conservatives to feel as if they had got
kicked in the gut?
Here is my shot at why conservatives think they got beat soundly despite the numbers being close. I am no political expert. So take this with a grain of salt.
1. In the 2010 mid-term elections the conservatives
cleaned up. The expectation was that they would do this again. By my last count
the Republicans lost two seats in the Senate and two in the House. When you expect to win by a lot and you lose
by a little it can feel like you lost by a lot.
2. President Obama’s first four years were a
debacle. The economy was destroyed. The stimulus package did not work.
Obamacare got passed, but most polls indicated that a majority of the country
did not want it. Unemployment was never really fixed. All of this led
conservatives to believe that the country was ready for a change, much as it
was in 1992 when Bill Clinton beat out George H.W. Bush. President Obama seemed
ripe for the picking. They were wrong.
3. The voting blocs that are growing went with
President Obama. The Hispanic vote was 70% in favor of President Obama. The
younger generation vote was 60% in favor of President Obama. These two voting
blocs will likely determine the president for years to come. The older generation, who will be dying out over
the next couple of decades, largely voted with Governor Romney. The writing on
the wall from this election is that it is going to be increasingly difficult
for a conservative to win the White House unless they can somehow reach
Hispanics and younger votes.
4. The conservatives anticipated a more
energized base. Despite the rhetoric of the months preceding the election, this
did not happen. Governor Romney got 2,600,000 less votes than John McCain. The
conservative base was not energized.
5. The final reason the numbers do not tell
the whole story is that social conservatives lost on numerous fronts. Three states,
Maine, Maryland, and Washington, voted to allow gay marriage. This marks the
first time that a popular vote has been in favor of gay marriage. Conservatives
are also losing ground in the abortion battle, although there is more debate
here than about gay marriage. One national exit poll had 59% of the voters
believing that abortion should be legal in all circumstances. Add to this the
passage of Obamacare and it appears that more Americans are in favor of
abortion than ever before.
I am no expert on
political matters. I could be wrong on some or all of these
points. But I would argue that despite how close the numbers were most
conservatives were stunned by the results and felt that President Obama got a
huge win on Tuesday.
2 comments:
Good points one and all. Pressure is already mounting on the Republican party to compromise principles for the expediency of winning elections given the changing demographics. A democracy, and we are ceasing to be republic, is only as good as its individual citizens. Fortunately, we have the answer. Salvation by grace through faith in the Messiah.
Great post, Peter.
Thanks!
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